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Sizing Safety Stock Against Real Supplier Lead-Time Variability
A distributor sets safety stock from nominal supplier lead times published in the ERP, which bear little relation to actual delivery performance.
Runs onSanchayHow the work runs
The pressure that made this worth automating, the steps the system runs, and what came out the other side.
Pressure & Trigger Points
- Nominal lead times understate real variability, so safety stock is systematically too low for unreliable suppliers.
- Reliable and unreliable suppliers are buffered identically, tying up capital where it is not needed.
- Nobody measures delivered lead time, so the nominal figures are never challenged.
The run · 5 operational steps
Click any step to inspect telemetry signals, model reasoning, and governance gates.
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Delivered Lead-Time Measurement
Actual order-to-receipt times are measured per supplier and per SKU rather than taken from the ERP field.
Input Signal:
Real-time operational telemetry & queue
Reasoning Pattern:
MCP grounded vector inference
Governance Gate:
Policy constrained with audit write-back
Verified Business Outcomes
- Safety stock sized against measured rather than nominal lead times.
- Working capital released where suppliers are demonstrably reliable.
- Supplier performance measured and available for contract discussions.
Capabilities this relies on
- forecasting
- system connectors
- scenario simulation
- alert routing
- anomaly detection
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